What is the key to successful sports betting?

That is the chart of William Hill’s annual earnings and profits for the previous four decades. If I were incompetent at using Google to regain historical results I would have gone back further, and you would have noticed the consistency goes far beyond the last four decades. They always make money. They are a money-making machine.

They are a bookmaker. You understand how“the house always wins“? Well that is exactly what this chart is showing you.

Those of you who haven’t moved on in disgust at the bait-and-switch response you feel you’re reading are likely asking something such as“ha bloody ha Groves…you know that’s not exactly what the question implies. This means“how do I win consistently in sports gambling?“

I do know that, yes. And is a point . The point is that if the bookmakers consistently win, which basically they do, all you need to do to win is do exactly what the bookmakers are doing.

Alright, so today you are perhaps thinking“that is all well smartarse, but I am not just planning to go out and open a chain of betting shops during the next few decades and gradually develop a profitable company today am I?“ (ah I visit! You want to always win, but you don’t wish to really have to do some job to make it happen? Gotcha).

That is missing the point however. You don’t need to start a chain of betting shops, luckily. You need to recognize the underlying reasons why the bookie wins, and copy those.

Reason number one that the bookie wins: He does his homework. He utilizes information that empowers him to gauge, with greater precision than the people he is gambling with, what the real chances of any specific outcome are. He’s all of the information he can find, and he’s computer models to populate that information.

All this you can do yourself. You simply need to be prepared to put that effort in. It is not easy to collect this much information, and build these kind of models, but it’s possible. It has been done by me. It can be accomplished.

Reason number two that the bookie wins: He“charges“ people to wager. The odds that he offers don’t add as much as an implied probability of 100%, the rest being possible profit for the bookie (known as the“vig“ from the US). Depending on the event he might be charging two or three percentage points (so on average he’ll earn $2 for every $100 bet) to a few hundred percent points (so on average he’ll make $200 for each $100 bet). It is dependent upon his certainty around his quote, how dodgy he’s, how idiotic he believes his punters are, just how much competition he has, and so on.

You can sort of do that yourself, but it is not quite so easy. Fortunately you do not need to take advantage of the gain source as far as ensure it’s not a profit drain. One method to do so is to cut out the middleman by placing your bets on a market like Betfair at which you can actually act as a price-maker rather than a price-taker. As it is an exchange, you can not always get paid to put on the bets you want, but sometimes you can, and you pay less play than you would if you went into a traditional bookie. You can even decrease the vig by shopping around and betting with all the best priced bookie, instead of going to the same place for all your stakes.

There are several other things also, but these are the key things that you need to deal with. Hence that the bookie makes cash by adding the gains from understanding the odds better to the gains from being paid the vig. The way you are going to make money is by making certain that the losses from paying the vig are less than the gains from realizing the odds better. It is just maths.

You even have an advantage over the bookies to help you. That’s the advantage of not having to wager. Bookies are anticipated to produce markets on a whole host of sporting occasions, and honor those costs if somebody attempts to bet on them. You do not need to do that. You’re able to focus on the stuff that you can understand better, that you have good data on, that you have models that provide good odds estimates on. You can sit and await the occasions the bookies get it wrong, because one of all of the noise they do make it wrong sometimes. You wait, and you wait, and you wait as long as you want to wait. Then you bet. And you do so together with the odds in your favor and vig eliminated as much as possible.

If you do so, then you are taking advantage of the same things that the bookie uses to win consistently. And as we all know,“the house always wins“.

Does this sound like a lot of work? Perhaps, right? It’s not straightforward. It isn’t fast. It is not a get-rich-quick strategy. * But this is surely a way to win consistently at sports betting.

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