This weekend we’ve got an early card on Sunday morning (10:30am ET). I really do like these ancient cards so that I will wake up and have a DraftKings sweat and go out and revel in the remainder of the afternoon when the struggles are over. This Sunday’s card will take place in Hamburg, Germany and there are plenty of fighters making their UFC debut. Because of this, I believe we should have a large edge this week if we put in the job. Most casual players will not be doing research on these titles they’ve not heard and will just be throwing lineups seeking to get lucky and hit a huge score. I will personally be chasing the large $15k top prize in the $8 GPP as well as the Qualifiers. The majority of my investment will be in cash games, largely H2Hs, but I will be taking multiple shots at these huge prizes. Here are a Couple of plays I like this week as well as my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of this week — Stack (Anthony Smith $8,700 AND Shogun Rua $7,500)
It is an arduous card that Sunday and I think we will see a good deal of people making mistakes in money games. Any time I believe I will guarantee a total 100+ points in a struggle, I love to pile it into my cash games and lock those points. I think this fight is going to be a fun one and I highly doubt it goes to the scorecards. I believe we could observe numerous knockdowns too that would help, but I believe we easily get over 100+ points combined with these two men. Let us let everyone else make the mistakes and we could lock at a 100+ points and a win, then we only have to find another 3 wins we are confident in.
GPP drama of the week — Manny Bermudez ($9,200)
I think that this matchup was set up to get Bermudez a triumph. He’s got quite a slick entry game and when this fight goes to the floor I presume he can pick up progress points quickly and find a submission. Grant has had issues with submission defense in his career and even if he’s winning the feet, he shoots for takedowns each struggle. I believe if Manny can’t get the takedown himself, then Grant will gradually go to it himself and it will cost him. I think we can observe a 1st round submission here which should easily get that the 10x+ we’re searching for at his $9.2k price label.
Underdog drama of the week — Shogun Rua ($7,500)
In case Shogun can win this battle he’ll easily pay off this price . He’s got 100-point upside and using a $7.5k salary that will certainly place him on the winning lineup when he can arrive. Anthony Smith has been knocked out more instances than Shogun and has fought much worse competition. I wouldn’t be shocked if Shogun is able to acquire a KO here against Smith, who’s carrying this fight on short notice. Shogun has noticeably slowed down from the past few years but I think that he still has enough in the tank to pull off an upset victory . I do want exposure to both guys in GPPs, but I think you need some exposure to Rua if you are making numerous lineups.
Fade of this week — Nick Hein ($8,500)
I have a number of fades this week and I am going with a bigger player pool in hopes of my own picks being right and that I can hit the right combo. It is hard to choose one favourite fade this week however I shall select Nick Hein. I do think Nick Hein will win this battle, and I think he will use takedowns to acquire the choice win here. So, you would think that sounds great on DraftKings since wrestling stands up things. However, he doesn’t chain together takedowns and that he usually ends up with only 1 or two in his UFC wins. He doesn’t have much completing ability and that I don’t see him getting a submission. But I think we’ll see 2-3 takedowns him and here grinding his way into a Unanimous Decision victory as we’ve seen from him previously. Hein includes 4 UFC wins and all these are his DraftKings game titles for those wins: 53 points, 58 points, 65 points, and 71 points. At $8.5k, I’m not interested in having any DK investment on Hein with those scores. That is why he’s my fade of the week.
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